History repeated itself, or kind of
Like in 2020
The conflict between Iran and the US continued to escalate this week. The US assassinated an important commander of the militia known as Kataib Hezbollah, Abu Baqir al-Saadi, on Wednesday, February 7th. Two of his guards were also killed with him. The US killed him in eastern Baghdad by targeting his vehicle with a drone strike, like the killing of Quds Force leader, Qassem Soleimani, in 2020. This drone strike was part of the retaliation for the attack in Jordan that killed three US military personnel.
The Kataib Hezbollah militia is linked to the attack in the US base in Jordan that killed three soldiers on January 28th. It is responsible for most of the attacks in the region. The militia is also part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, which are composed of many groups. Many of these groups are controlled by Iran. These are now integrated in the Iraqi armed forces.
Flag of Kataib Hezbollah. Source: Entre Guerras
“US forces conducted a unilateral strike in Iraq in response to the attacks on US service members, killing a Kataib Hezbollah commander responsible for directly planning and participating in attacks on US forces in the region”,
said the military in a statement.
The attack took place in eastern Baghdad, a sanctuary for the Iranian backed militias in Iraq.
Place of the airstrike. Source: Lord of War
US Officials said the strike was part of Joe Biden’s promised response to the attack in Jordan. The President himself authorized the strike, which was executed as soon as possible. The US forces struck Iranian militias last week in Iraq and Syria, also in retaliation for the attack in the base in Jordan.
The Iranian backed militias have been attacking US forces since the October 7th war in Gaza began. Those attacks have killed 3 servicemen, injured very seriously two, seriously injured nine, and 132 with non-serious injuries. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq have targeted US forces in retaliation for Washington’s support for Israel.
“The US will continue to take necessary action to protect our people. We will not hesitate to hold responsible all those who threaten out force’s safety”.
According to this statement, more attacks by the US could be expected to continue. This was also mentioned on February 2nd strikes in Syria and Iraq, which were described just as the “beginning of the US response” by Biden. An official also said that the strike against al-Saadi was not the end to the retaliatory actions in response to the attack in Jordan. More leaders are expected to be targeted, since US officials mentioned that key militia leaders would.
The car after the airstrike. Source: El Bunker News
On the pro Iran side, more attacks on US forces are expected to continue. This, because some of the militias have already threatened to retaliate for al-Saadi’s death. The al-Nujaba Movement promised a “targeted retaliation” and not to let “these crimes go unpunished”. The al-Nujaba movement had already mentioned it would continue to attack US forces, although some of the militias like Kataib Hezbollah, were stopping the attacks.
Iraq has already anticipated retaliation, preparing the zones for security. They have blocked streets near the US embassy. There have been social media posts calling for attacks on the US embassy.
Kataib Hezbollah mentioned the commander’s death “called them to remain steadfast in the jihadist approach”. Thus, it is expected the group will carry more attacks.
Al-Saadi was linked to attacks on US forces in the region. It remains to be seen if this has an impact on the militia’s capabilities of targeting US assets there.
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