Aleppo has fallen
Game changing surprise
This week we saw the surprising fall of Aleppo to the radical jihadists of Haya’at Tahrir al-Sham after a surprise offensive. The rebels of the Syrian National Army also participated in it. This was met with little resistance from the Syrian Army. They gave taken also towns of Idlib and Aleppo provinces. This echoes the 2014 fall of Mosul to ISIS or the 2021 fall of Kabul to the Taliban. This post will talk about how Aleppo fell, and what it means.
On Wednesday, November 26th, the attack began. The government forces almost did not resist.
Source: Geopolitics & Empire
Finally, on Friday, November 28th, the rebels conquered the city. The same day, two airstrikes targeted rebel positions. The Kurdish forces reported that people were arriving to their zone of control to take refuge. They also expanded some of their areas of control. The rebels also took control of the Aleppo airport.
HTS storming Aleppo’s Central Prison. Source: Rerum Novarum // Intel, Breaking News and Alerts
On Saturday, the remains of the Syrian Arab Army redeployed and prepared for a counter attack. According to the statement, while they acknowledged the fall of Aleppo, they mentioned that they did not establish bases or checkpoints. The army described it as a “temporary measure”. It also stated that they were preparing for a counteroffensive. Although the city had been taking, the Russian Airforce continued to strike Aleppo, along with Syria’s airforce.
Source: Entre Guerras
On Monday, Christians began to be harassed in the city.
Source: Bellum Acta - Intel, Urgent News and Archives
The Assad regime, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, took over Aleppo in December 2016. This was a turning point in the war, and was paving the way for the regime to win the war. It is the first time that the jihadis enter Aleppo since then. Haya’at Tahrir al-Sham started off as the al-Qaeda branch in Syria, the al-Nusra Front. However, it broke from al-Qaeda in 2016. Northeast Syria was in silence since 2020, when a ceasefire had been implemented. Possibly, Haya’at Tahrir al-Sham gained confidence in 2021, when the Taliban took over Kabul.
Source: Ukraine Watch
The attack on Aleppo followed weeks of regime and Russian attacks against opposition held areas. Also, after Hezbollah’s recent confrontation with Israel, which has depleted its ranks. Israel has attacked Iranian backed militias like Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon, intensifying them for the last two months. Russian S-300 missile systems were withdrawn from Syria when the war in Ukraine began.
This is a great setback for Russia, Assad and Iran. Jaish al-Izza commander, Mustafa Abdul Jaber, claimed that the lack of Iranian manpower helped them in their offensive. Iranian proxys have been degraded since the war in Gaza began. The offensive triggered many residents to flee to safer parts of the city.
Source: War Monitor
Despite not being committed to Syria in the recent time, neither Iran or Russia wants Aleppo to be held by HTS. This would send a message that the “Axis of Resistance” is coming down from the confrontation with Israel. An increase in persecution of Christians in Aleppo is to be expected. The jihadis have already killed an Armenian who tried to escape the city. They have also threatened to behead clergymen in Aleppo. Liquor stores have been closed down, and they have enforced veiled on Christian women. The islamists have also demanded that the bishop of the Greek Orthodox Church in Aleppo, Ephraim Maalouli, pay jizyah, a tax imposed on non Muslims; imposes veil on Christian women; and removes icons from churches in 3 days.
Rebel fighters were filmed firing in the air to celebrate. Russia launched airstrikes in Aleppo, Idlib, and nearby areas, from the Hmmeim airbase. Moscow also promised extra military help for Damascus. Dmitry Peskov, called the Syrian authorities to “reestablish order as soon as possible”. The Turkish Foreign Minister Spokesman, Oncu Keceli, called on both sides to respect the previous de-escalation agreements.
“The recent clashes have resulted in an undesirable escalation of tensions in the region”,
Syrian state TV blamed Turkey for the offensive. President Assad has vowed to fight back and “crush the insurgents”. Jordanian King Abdullah, and the President of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, expressed their solidarity with Damascus. The Taliban in Kabul launched fireworks to celebrate the capture of the city. The al-Qaeda branch in Yemen, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, congratulated HTS for taking Aleppo.
There is a potential weakening on the Assad regime. An increase of persecution on Christians and other non Sunnis is expected. Russia can help Assad, but it will avoid compromising Ukraine. Despite of how much it aims to help Assad, Iran has now its capabilities limited due the conflict with Israel. Much will depend on if Syria can reconquer Aleppo or not. Currently, the regime is trying to stick onto Hama. If it loses it, then its entire rule is threatened. Last Friday, the Syrian regime sent reinforcements to Aleppo from the Syrian desert, interrupting operations against the Islamic State. Thus, here the group has an opportunity.
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HTS took over Aleppo last Friday, after a three-day battle. The group has imposed restrictions on the Christian minority. Syria and its allies mention that they aim to recapture Aleppo. Turkey is behind the offensive. Radical Islamist groups like the Taliban have congratulated Haya’at Tahrir al-Sham on their victory. The HTS advance worries regional powers. The offensive was easy for the group due Iran and Russia being focused on Israel and Ukraine.
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